Loans to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in India saw moderated growth in April 2026, with early signs of stress emerging among micro borrowers and manufacturers, according to a report by credit bureau CRIF High Mark. The slowdown is attributed to potential impacts of global uncertainty.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has expressed caution regarding 'extreme volatility' risks stemming from the West Asian conflict, which could impact global oil demand and the company's margins, while also noting that near-term retail consumption demand may remain sensitive to macro conditions. Chairman Mukesh Ambani, in the annual report, remained silent on the timeline for Jio Platforms' anticipated public listing, stating the group will 'continue to evaluate strategic pathways'.
India's toll collection growth is projected to moderate to 5-7 per cent year-on-year in FY27, a 150-200 basis points reduction, primarily due to the economic impact of the West Asia conflict and a slowdown in commercial traffic, according to Crisil Ratings.
Several non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) are observing an increase in early-stage delinquencies within their micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loan portfolios, primarily driven by supply chain disruptions and escalating raw material costs exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
'An asset must generate income. Equities yield dividends, bonds pay coupons, deposits give interest, and real estate earns rent.' 'Gold, silver, and even Bitcoin produce no income, they merely store value. So, they should not be compared to productive assets.'
'India is a big market for StanC, and it is also fastest growing economy in the world.'
India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
The Indian economy could remain less affected by global trade wars than other countries because the two engines of domestic growth - consumption and investment - are likely to face a limited impact from such headwinds, according to an article on the 'State of the Economy' in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) bulletin, released on Tuesday.
Net profit of 19 listed banks is likely to decline by 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) for the quarter ended March (Q4FY25) mainly due to pressure on net interest margins (NIM) as a result of rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), according to analysts' estimates. Additionally, loan growth is expected to further slowdown amid low demand in certain secured products, stress in the unsecured segment, and a high cost to deposit (CD) ratio across the system.
Largecap companies are generally less vulnerable to economic slowdowns than their mid- and smallcap counterparts.
Corporate indebtedness is now twice what it was before the global financial crisis; banks' bad loans ratio is 3.5 times higher.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
'It won't be a V-shaped recovery. It'll be consolidation.' 'Investors might exit during that grind. It'll be painful.'
The paint sector is seeing heightened competition with the entry of deep-pocketed groups like Aditya Birla and JSW. However, some brokerages see an opportunity in select stocks.
Donald Trump's Presidency of the United States will open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if the incoming president decides to impose restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations, experts said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendly relationship with Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Existing optimism about the capital goods sector has been enhanced by the Assembly election results, which were favourable for the BJP. The prospects of political continuity led to renewed interest in the sector. There are demand-supply gaps, especially in power, and visibility of improved pricing and strong order flows, including from private enterprises.
Siemens's share price has lost ground in the past few sessions following weak management commentary. The management indicated challenges to the growth outlook due to stagnant private capex and concerns over semiconductor shortages for digital industries. Government infra-spending may regain momentum from January 2025.
After a turnaround in performance by Indian equity markets since July that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 wipe out the year-to-date losses, analysts suggest investors start nibbling into stocks that are focused on the domestic economy. While they say intermittent corrections, led by policies of global central banks and other economic data, cannot be ruled out, analysts expect India's relative outperformance among global equity markets to continue as it looks better placed with a healthy economic recovery, and remains one of the fastest growing major economies. In this backdrop, Neeraj Chadawar, head of quantitative equity strategy at Axis Securities, believes that amid global slowdown, aggressive tightening by the central banks, and preference for domestic interests first (by the local government), export-oriented themes are likely to be muted or will deliver conservative returns in the near-term.
Bank credit growth is expected to moderate this financial year after a robust 16 per cent estimated for last financial year, driven by strong economic activity and retail credit demand. There are three reasons for this: a statistical high-base effect given the strong growth seen last financial year, revision in risk weights by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and relatively slower economic activity.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
The construction sector is now India's second-largest employer after agriculture, the trend coinciding with India's high-growth phase and decline in poverty levels
'At this moment you cannot give her asylum because if you do, then you are directing public anger against India.'
'More than investors, fund houses, and advisors have raised caution and limited flows on small-and mid-caps.'
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
Slowdown persists in China. India's GDP estimates for 2015-16 are liable to be pared; projections for 2016-17 are lacklustre.
The international community counts a lot on India's leadership of the G-20 at a time when the world is faced with the continued economic slowdown and social distress, the chief of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva has said. "India, which is the president of G-20 countries, remains among the countries that perform better than the global average and by a good percentage," IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva told reporters during a media roundtable on Thursday. India formally assumed the G20 (Group of 20) Presidency on December 1.
The most important positive of India's stealth bull market is earnings growth across different sectors, explains Debashis Basu.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to be increased despite firming raw material costs because of upcoming general elections next year, Moody's Investors Service said. Three state-owned fuel retailers -- Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) -- which control roughly 90 per cent of the market, have kept petrol and diesel prices on freeze for a record 18 months in a row. This is despite the raw material (crude oil) cost surging last year, leading to heavy losses in first half of 2022-23 fiscal year before easing oil prices propelled them to profitability.
Ahead of the Union Budget for 2023-24, Budget makers have welcomed the global consensus view that India will remain one of the bright spots in calendar year 2023. But there is some alarm over the grim global situation and how that might impact the Centre's projections and assessments for next financial year. The big global headwinds include a deep and sustained recession in the West, including India's biggest trading partners in North America and Europe, continuing volatility in commodity markets, and renewed Covid-19 fears, as lifting of strict curbs by China could potentially lead to a massive spread again.
Zombies a.k.a perpetually loss-making firms in India seem to have dampened the effectiveness of monetary policy at the margin as they use borrowed resources more for their survival than for undertaking new investment, according to a RBI study. The monetary policy does not hinder the creative destruction process by misallocating credit flows to zombies during periods of economic slowdown, showed a study by officers of Reserve Bank of India. It has been published in RBI's bulletin for February 2022. In India, zombie firms are estimated to account for about 10 per cent of total debt of the non-financial corporate sector.
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
India must integrate more with East Asia by getting into regional trade arrangements, lower its tariff walls, and improve the quality of its workforce, suggests T N Ninan.
The only real solution to the jobs crisis, whether in India or abroad, is to direct tech innovation towards job enhancing sectors, and disincentivising job-replacing ones, observes R Jagannathan.
India's projected economic growth for 2022 has been downgraded by over two per cent to 4.6% by the United Nations, a decrease attributed to the ongoing war in Ukraine, with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions, food inflation, tightening policies and financial instability, according to a UN report released on Thursday. The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report downgraded its global economic growth projection for 2022 to 2.6 per cent from 3.6 per cent due to shocks from the Ukraine war and changes in macroeconomic policies that put developing countries particularly at risk. The report said while Russia will experience a deep recession this year, significant slowdowns in growth are expected in parts of Western Europe and Central, South and South-East Asia.
